Polysilicon rose 4%, manufacturers will grab more market share

This week’s opinion: Photovoltaics: The Ministry of Finance issued the “Notice on Liquidation of the 2012 Golden Sun and Photovoltaic Building Application Demonstration Project,” which stipulates that the Golden Sun Project for grid-connected power generation must be completed by December 31, 2013 (inclusive), with the subsidy standard reduced from 5.5 yuan/watt to 5 yuan/watt. Moreover, projects not completed by June 30, 2014, will lose their demonstration status and have to repay the subsidies. We recommend continued attention to industry investment opportunities driven by policy support and improved performance, particularly in the distributed photovoltaic field. Focus on investment opportunities at both ends of the supply chain—polysilicon and power plants—and consider inverters as well. Battery: Tesla is set to expand its Model S production capacity by over 60% next year, and the new electric SUV, Model X, will also go into production. In 2014, Model S production is expected to increase by 63%, reaching 35,000 units from 21,500 this year. Adding Model X to the lineup could further boost total output. Investors should pay attention to upstream lithium battery material companies. Meanwhile, the lead-acid battery industry is undergoing restructuring, leading to greater market concentration. Camel shares, known for car start batteries, are recommended for long-term investment. Polysilicon prices surged last week. According to PVInsights’ sample data, PV-grade polysilicon rose by 3.95%, secondary polysilicon increased by 1.51%, and polysilicon wafers climbed by 2.11%. Solar cell prices rose by 1.05%, while crystalline silicon modules remained stable. Monocrystalline silicon cells saw a 0.96% increase, and wafer prices remained flat. Five major monocrystalline silicon companies have joined forces to push a unified standard, aiming to capture more of the domestic power station market. Several top domestic monocrystalline silicon wafer manufacturers have introduced two new size standards, hoping to gain long-term market share from polysilicon wafer producers. As domestic distribution expands, we believe monocrystalline silicon manufacturers will capture a larger portion of the market. Important company news: 1. Hairun Photovoltaic signed a cooperation agreement with China Southern Power Grid Integrated Energy Co., Ltd., covering a 300MW ground-mounted photovoltaic project in Qilin District, Qujing City, Yunnan Province, and a 200MW project in Yimen County, Yuxi City. 2. Hairun Photovoltaic also signed a framework agreement with the People’s Government of Chayouhouqi to develop a 100MW solar power project in the right rear flag area. Investment strategy: For photovoltaics, the recovery trend remains intact. Pay attention to layout opportunities arising from industry consolidation, with long-term focus on industry leaders such as Sunshine Power and Longji. For distributed systems, consider Aikang Technology and Lin Yang Electronics, and for centralized projects, look at TBEA Zhongli Technology. For batteries, maintain a "buy" rating on Camel shares and focus on lithium battery materials companies like New Zebang.

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