Polysilicon rose 4%, manufacturers will grab more market share

Abstract This week's point of view: Photovoltaics: The Ministry of Finance recently issued the "Notice on the Liquidation of the 2012 Golden Sun and Photovoltaic Building Application Demonstration Projects," stating that grid-connected photovoltaic projects under the Golden Sun initiative must be completed by December 31, 2013. The original subsidy was set at 5.5 yuan per watt, which has now been reduced to 5 yuan per watt. Additionally, any projects not completed by June 30, 2014, will lose their demonstration status and face recovery of subsidies. We continue to recommend keeping an eye on investment opportunities driven by policy support and improved industry performance, especially in the distributed solar sector. Key areas include upstream polysilicon and power plant development, as well as inverters.
This week’s opinion: Photovoltaics: The Ministry of Finance released the “Notice on Liquidation of the 2012 Golden Sun and Photovoltaic Building Application Demonstration Project,” specifying that the Golden Sun grid-connected project must be completed by December 31, 2013. The original subsidy was 5.5 yuan per watt, now reduced to 5 yuan per watt. Projects not completed by June 30, 2014, will lose their status and face repayment of subsidies. We suggest maintaining focus on investment opportunities stemming from policy-driven growth, particularly in the distributed solar market. Pay attention to both ends of the supply chain—polysilicon and power plants—as well as inverter manufacturers. Battery: Tesla is set to expand its Model S production by over 60% next year, with the Model X electric SUV also entering production. In 2014, Model S output is expected to rise by 63%, reaching 35,000 units from 21,500 this year. Adding the Model X could further boost total output. Investors should monitor lithium battery material companies, while the lead-acid battery industry consolidation may increase market concentration. Long-term recommendations include Camel shares for car start batteries. Polysilicon prices saw a sharp increase last week. According to PVInsights data, PV-grade polysilicon rose by 3.95%, secondary polysilicon increased by 1.51%, polysilicon wafers by 2.11%, and solar cells by 1.05%. Crystalline silicon modules remained stable. Monocrystalline silicon cells rose by 0.96%, while wafer prices stayed flat. Five major monocrystalline silicon companies have joined forces to push for standardized wafer sizes, aiming to capture market share from polysilicon wafer manufacturers. As domestic distribution expands, we expect monocrystalline silicon producers to gain more market traction. Important company news: 1. Hairun Photovoltaic signed a cooperation agreement with China Southern Power Grid Integrated Energy Co., Ltd., covering a 300MW ground-mounted solar project in Qilin District, Qujing City, Yunnan Province, and a 200MW project in Yimen County, Yuxi City. 2. Hairun Photovoltaic also signed a framework agreement with the People's Government of Chayouhouqi to develop a 100MW solar project in the area. Investment strategy: For photovoltaics, the industry recovery trend remains strong. Focus on layout opportunities in the downstream sector, and keep long-term attention on industry leaders like Sunshine Power and Longji. For distributed systems, consider Aikang Technology and Lin Yang Electronics. For centralized projects, TBEA Zhongli Technology is a key player. For batteries, maintain a "buy" rating on Camel shares and pay close attention to lithium battery material companies such as New Zebang.

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