Polysilicon is difficult to hide the industry crisis in March

**Abstract** One factor is a slightly milder price trend in the spot market, while the other is a disappointing "double-reverse" ruling and an underwhelming photovoltaic grid-connected policy. Most polysilicon manufacturers, who are still navigating the upstream of the solar industry, remain cautious and on hold. At the start of 2013, the once-frozen polysilicon market began to show signs of thawing. After three months of gradual price increases, the market price rose from its lowest point of 115,000 yuan per ton to around 140,000 yuan per ton—a more than 20% increase. However, suppliers have not yet felt relieved. "One wrong move after downstream demand fails to recover could be devastating," said a senior executive from a Sichuan-based polysilicon company that had been shut down for over a year. "With heavy fixed costs and ongoing technical upgrades, our conditions for resuming production are very strict. We need to see prices reach a certain level before we act, or else we risk losing money." According to a reporter’s investigation, most Chinese polysilicon producers have costs exceeding 124,300 yuan per ton, and current market prices still struggle to cover these expenses. **Listed Companies and Polysilicon** Leshan Power (600644.SH), one of the most recognized listed companies in the polysilicon sector, recently stated that it is still investing in technological upgrades and has no immediate plans to resume production. The company, which has been idle for over a year, reported a 30.78% drop in operating income in 2012, with polysilicon revenue plummeting by 98.78%. Net profit also fell by 42.37%. Since the shutdown in November 2011, its subsidiary LeTV Tianwei Silicon Industry has lost nearly 196.486 million yuan, significantly impacting the parent company. Similarly, Chuantou Energy (600674.SH) faced serious challenges. Its 2012 operating income dropped by 1.21%, while net profit increased slightly by 17.3%. This was largely due to losses at Xinguang Silicon, which holds a 38.9% stake, as well as provisions for long-term equity investment impairments. Market speculation suggests the company may consider divesting its polysilicon business. According to Lu Wei, Secretary-General of the China Polysilicon Industry Technology Innovation Strategy, due to oversupply and dumping from overseas producers, over 80% of Chinese polysilicon enterprises faced operational difficulties in 2012. Despite this, a small number of upstream manufacturers are trying to upgrade through technological improvements. Leshan Power’s upgraded polysilicon production cost has dropped to about 100,000 yuan per ton, slightly below the previous market low. Meanwhile, Sichuan Yongxiang and Sichuan Ruineng, which have resumed operations or are preparing to do so, have managed to keep their costs under 111,900 yuan per ton, allowing them to compete with foreign suppliers. **Low Expectations and Waiting Game** However, industry insiders remain skeptical about the recent price rise. “The results of the ‘double-reverse’ ruling were delayed, which dampened market enthusiasm. It’s likely to be lower than expected, so the gains haven’t been significant. There are signs of a slowdown,” said a source in Chengdu, who preferred not to be named. The real turning point for the market will come with the recovery of terminal demand. “This would not only improve the financial health of mid- and downstream wafer and component companies but also encourage the rapid resumption of upstream production and reduce capital consumption,” said a representative from a polysilicon firm. Market participants are hopeful that the domestic PV market will take off. At the beginning of 2013, the National Energy Work Conference set a target of 10 million kilowatts of photovoltaic capacity. However, many believe that the current policy is still too cautious and aimed more at restructuring the overcapacity industry. As a result, the upstream polysilicon sector is expected to face a painful adjustment. “It’s clear that the current price trend won’t return to the previous explosive growth,” said an industry insider. “Domestic polysilicon companies will likely continue to delay technical upgrades for some time. Some will eventually have to cut costs. The leading manufacturers will resume production first, and as low-quality producers are phased out, prices will stabilize, and profit margins will settle at a reasonable level.” According to industry sources, the current price has reached 155,400 yuan per ton, and idle factories can be reactivated. Most companies are still waiting to see what happens next.

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