Photovoltaic subsidies will reduce the use of household photovoltaics to bring back life

Abstract It is reported that the National Energy Administration has recently held a symposium on the results of the mid-term evaluation of the 13th Five-Year Plan for Solar Energy Development. According to the participants, several important PV industry policies were identified during the meeting, which may have an impact on the future development of the industry. In summary, the main...

It is reported that the National Energy Administration has recently held a symposium on the results of the mid-term evaluation of the 13th Five-Year Plan for Solar Energy Development. According to the participants, several important PV industry policies were identified during the meeting, which may have an impact on the future development of the industry. In summary, there are five main points:
1. Photovoltaic is a clean energy source supported by the state and will be supported in the future and will never change;
2. The subsidy plan will continue until 2022, and will not promote the parity online process across the board. Before actually entering the comprehensive “de-subsidy”, the National Energy Administration will still guarantee a certain subsidy installed capacity every year and promote the further decline of subsidy intensity;
3. Adjusting the “13th Five-Year Plan”, the target of 210GW is too low. According to the development speed, the target is expected to be adjusted to 250GW or even more than 270GW;
4. Accelerate the introduction of relevant policies for the photovoltaic industry next year and stabilize market expectations;
5. Approved households use photovoltaics for separate management, differentiated from industrial and commercial distribution, and give more support!
If the above five policies are true, then the photovoltaic industry that is trapped in the cold winter will usher in spring. In fact, the exposure of this positive trend has caused PV concept stocks to rise today. The author believes that in combination with the above five policy contents, there are several trends in the future direction of the industry that need attention.

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The "531 New Deal" of the photovoltaic subsidy is the most stringent policy since the development of the photovoltaic industry. There is a "one size fits all" suspicion and the industry has been hit hard. Prior to this, both the subsidy and the control of the scale indicators, the national policy is relatively loose, which played a decisive role in the rapid development of the industry. However, these "consistent" benefits and support ushered in a turning point in the "531 New Deal." If the previous subsidy policy was "Candied dates," then the "531 New Deal" was "big stick."
After this, although the relevant departments and responsible persons have repeatedly stressed that the state's support for photovoltaic power generation has not changed, there are still many people who doubt the attitude of the country. After all, under the strict control of scale, the profit rate of the photovoltaic industry has dropped to a new low. Any policy that cannot improve the profit rate of the industry seems to be weak, and it will make the so-called "support" of relevant departments seem insincere.
This meeting once again confirmed that PV will continue to receive the key support attitude, but unlike the previous slogan “Slogan”, the relevant departments may further relax the control of subsidies and scale, which is a substantial positive.
First, the subsidy will continue until 2022, which is a guarantee for the industry's future subsidy policy, meaning that subsidies will exist for at least four years. At present, the industry expects the PV parity online time to be 2020. Although the industry will no longer rely on subsidies after the parity Internet access, there is a big difference in the profit rate of subsidized and unsubsidized industries, and two years of subsidy time for photovoltaic power generation. There is a significant increase in competitiveness.
Another good thing for the industry to breathe a sigh of relief is that there will still be a certain subsidy installed capacity every year. However, it is worth mentioning that after the "531 New Deal", the tone of subsidies to accelerate the decline has been determined, and the total output of subsidies must be declining year by year. Therefore, from the overall industry trend, the scale of subsidized installation will still be there, but the scale will be smaller and smaller. With reference to the annual installed capacity of 30-50GW in recent years, and the 10GW of distributed installed capacity this year, it is expected that the subsidy installed capacity will not exceed 15GW in 2019, and will be reduced year by year.
Combined with the reduction of the on-grid price of photovoltaic benchmarks, the photovoltaic industry will be ushered in the dual regulation of “reduction of electricity prices + reduction of scale indicators”. In other words, in the future, the photovoltaic subsidy will not only be reduced, but also the number of projects that can receive subsidies will be less and less. In this way, the rate of subsidy decline will still be very fast, but it is much better than the complete subsidy of the “531 New Deal”.

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Household PV is still the star of the future In recent years, national policies have clearly tilted for certain projects. For example, the photovoltaic poverty alleviation project still enjoys the highest subsidy standard for all PV projects, and has sufficient scale indicators; as well as the front runner project, as an advanced project leading the industry technology upgrade, the leader is also the project that can definitely enjoy the PV subsidy. one. Through the continuous four-year electricity subsidy, the development focus of the photovoltaic industry has been smoothly transferred from centralized photovoltaic projects to distributed photovoltaic projects. As mentioned earlier, while the subsidy standard for electricity subsidies is reduced, the number of subsidized projects will be less and less, and according to the current trend of policy tilt, household PV projects may have a unique stand.
In ordinary projects other than photovoltaic poverty alleviation projects and front-runner projects, centralized projects have lost their growth space due to scarcity of land resources; distributed projects are just like the sky, so the photovoltaic development in the next few years is still mainly distributed. Market. The author believes that the next subsidy will still be tilted towards distributed photovoltaic projects.
However, distributed photovoltaic projects are also divided into industrial and commercial roofs and household photovoltaic projects. The industrial and commercial roofs have developed rapidly in the first two years, and their development space is not as good as household photovoltaics. At present, it is generally believed in the industry that the future of the photovoltaic industry is mainly in the field of household photovoltaics. In this field, photovoltaics are only emerging, and the market is broad in the future.
In this way, if the relevant policies recognize that household projects can be managed separately and provide more support in the future, the household photovoltaics that have been quiet for half a year will be revived. As for how the policy will provide specific support for household use, the author believes that it is possible to give more scale indicators to household projects, and secondly, it is possible to maintain higher subsidies for household use projects.
Summary In general, while the photovoltaic industry will continue to subsidize the power subsidies in the future, the scale of projects that can enjoy subsidies will also become smaller and smaller. It is precisely because of this that subsidized projects will become the “sweet” of the industry, and combined with the development trend of the photovoltaic industry, the possibility of enjoying better subsidy for household PV projects in the future is high. Household photovoltaics for half a year will be quiet. Come back to life.


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