The price of electricity may rise again after the "wind" of domestic oil price adjustment

Due to the serious losses of power generation companies and the severe power supply situation in winter, it is reported that the recent price increase may be approved, and in addition to the fact that the National Development and Reform Commission adjusted the price of electricity in some regions in the first half of this year, the price adjustment may be nationwide. . In response to this news, on the 14th there are unnamed power company executives said that the recent price hike may have been rumors for some time, the news pointed out that the Development and Reform Commission has raised the electricity price increase program submitted to the State Council.

Loss of power business

Yesterday, for the current rumors of electricity price adjustments, a senior manager of a local power company stated that the CPI has continued to decline in the past three months, creating conditions for the adjustment of the price of electricity. He heard that the National Development and Reform Commission has submitted the electricity price increase plan to the State Council, but in the end, whether the State Council approves it does not dare to pack votes. However, he said, "Even if the price of electricity is raised, we cannot control the rise in coal prices."

Yesterday, a number of analysts, including securities agencies, also said that they had heard the rumors of the tariff adjustment and said that the tariff adjustment would help the already-dangered thermal power companies.

According to CEC's data, from January to July of this year, the power businesses of Huaneng, Datang, Huadian, Guodian, and China Power Investment Group had a total loss of 7.46 billion yuan, a loss of 8.27 billion yuan year-on-year, of which thermal power business suffered a loss of 18.09 billion yuan. The year-on-year increase in losses was RMB 11.3 billion.

The National Development and Reform Commission has transferred electricity prices

According to statistics, on April 10 this year, the National Development and Reform Commission raised the on-grid tariffs in 12 provinces by about 2 points per kilowatt-hour. On June 1, the NDRC raised the prices of industrial, commercial and agricultural electricity in 15 provinces and municipalities. However, due to the continuous rise in coal prices and the continuing high domestic CPI in the second half of the year, despite the fact that power generation companies have begun to lose money, it seems that the increase in power prices has not been included in the “plan” to solve the problem. Prior to this, the NDRC stated that in order to ease the "electricity shortage" in the summer, it will speed up the approval of some power projects, but did not propose the idea of ​​price adjustment.

The power generation companies seem to have “cleared the situation” and are no longer looking to adjust their electricity prices. Instead, they are taking over power generation companies one after another. Most of the orders were from coal companies.

On October 29th, for the second consecutive year, the huge loss of the Yuzawa Power Assets Restructuring Plan came out. Tongji Coal Group will inject its four power plants and two coal mines into Yuze Power to replace the central company CPI as the controlling shareholder of Yuze Power. It became the first case in which the Big Five Power Group sold its controlling stakes in thermal power listed companies that were deeply involved in losses.

Huadian Group also recently handled its assets frequently. Recently, it has just listed and transferred 20% of its equity in Ningxia Datang International Dam Power Generation Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “Daba Power Generation”).

The above-mentioned power company executives stated that now coal companies are buying power plants everywhere, and in addition to coal and electricity, under the banner of coal and electricity, many power generation companies that are acquired by coal companies have got rid of the difficulties due to preferential coal prices. At the beginning, the power system reform advocated the competition of multiple power generation companies, gradually promoted the formation of a market-oriented system, reduced the cost of power generation, and allowed consumers to ultimately benefit. However, if the mechanism is not straightened out for a long time, the final result is that power generation companies will all lose money. Hot potato removed, "The original reform could not be implemented."

Domestic product oil price adjustment "wind" renewed

On the 14th, the rate of change of crude oil prices in the three places announced by domestic monitoring agencies showed that the rate of change has exceeded 3% and the positive price of 4% is close to the redline of price adjustment. The industry predicts that the domestic price adjustment window will come in late November. However, given the increasingly fierce retail price wars raised by private gas stations in recent years, hundreds of gas stations in Beijing are being cut prices.

International oil prices remain high

It is reported that the latest domestic gasoline and diesel price adjustment was on October 9, when domestic gasoline and diesel prices were lowered by 300 yuan/ton. Subsequently, the international oil prices rose all the way.

On the 14th, international oil prices continued to remain high. However, in the trading on Friday, the New York crude oil contract prices closed at the highest closing price in more than three months, reaching US$98.99 per barrel, or 1.2%, which is the main contract since July 26th. The highest closing price. Viewed from the weekly price, it has been rising for the sixth consecutive week. At the same time, the London Crude Oil Main contract price rose by 45 cents to close at 114.16 US dollars a barrel, or 0.4%.

Li Hong, a product oil analyst at Business Club, stated that the international oil price on November 11th was higher than the previous domestic price adjustment date on October 9th, which was 19.29% higher than the lowest price point on October 4. The 75.67 US dollar rose 30.82%.

In some regions, wholesale prices rose

The continuous rise in international oil prices has driven the rate of change of crude oil prices in the three places on which domestic product oil price adjustments are based to continue to approach 4%. As of November 11, the movement rate of crude oil movements in the three places reached 3.29%, and the price adjustment is expected to gradually increase. Zhuo Chuang Consulting refined oil analyst Chen Qing said that if the late crude oil continues the current trend, the price adjustment conditions of the NDRC will be met later this month, and the price adjustment window is about to open.

It is worth noting that, at this time, the domestic diesel shortage has just eased, and the appearance of price adjustment is undoubtedly an unfavorable factor in the acceleration of diesel shortage. On the 14th, it is understood that the current wholesale and retail market of domestic gasoline and diesel, diesel wholesale price upside down phenomenon, but still maintain the same situation of wholesale and retail prices, the national average wholesale price of 8296 yuan / ton, and PetroChina, Sinopec is still limited purchase; gasoline wholesale The market is relatively loose, with an average wholesale price of RMB 9,440/ton, and a profit margin of RMB 300-400/ton between the highest retail price.

On the 14th, the domestic price-sensitive Shandong refinery began to move with changes in international oil prices. The wholesale price of gasoline from individual manufacturers rose, including Jincheng, HSBC, and Beijing Bo.

Hundreds of Gas Station Promotions in Beijing

>>Related

In the retail market, the queuing and suspension of diesel sales nationwide have been significantly reduced, while gasoline sales have been more favorable. Among them, hundreds of gas stations in the Beijing market are on the promotion of 93 oil price reductions, including foreign gas stations such as Shell and Total, as well as state-run petrol stations such as PetroChina. The price cuts ranged from 0.1 yuan to 0.2 yuan per litre, while private gas stations The promotion rate is as high as 0.6 yuan -0.7 yuan / liter. The reason why the price reduction promotion, the above gas stations have expressed that due to the wholesale price of gasoline and retail prices between 300-400 yuan / ton of profit space, and fierce competition in some areas.